Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:20 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+169/-244).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -234 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -244.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
Najee Harris has been given 73.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has run for 0.35 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least touchdowns in the league (0.79 per game) vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.

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