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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+185/-269).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +189 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.

Najee Harris has garnered 57.1% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.

Najee Harris has run for 0.31 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (76th percentile).

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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