Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-338).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -338.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
Najee Harris has earned 55.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 123.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best collection of DTs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box against opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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