Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+164/-228).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -197 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -228.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
Najee Harris has garnered 56.4% of his offense's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in the league (1.25 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized some form of misdirection on a mere 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.