Najee Harris Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-275).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 39.0% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be a less important option in his team's run game near the goal line this week (50.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.9% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Najee Harris has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among RBs (1st percentile).
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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