Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Giants · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 28, 2024 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+102).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.7 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Najee Harris has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 10.5% this year, which places him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (86.4%) to RBs this year (86.4%).

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 49.0% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Najee Harris's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 84.7% to 76.7%.

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