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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may drop.

This week, Najee Harris is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.9 targets.

Najee Harris has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack this season (12.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.5%).

This year, the porous New York Jets pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 90.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 51.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The projections expect this game to have the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 126.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.

Najee Harris's 76.4% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a noteworthy reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 84.7% mark.

The New York Jets linebackers profile as the best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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