Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2024

Updated Sep 22, 2024 8:07 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 47.7% of their downs: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 56.4 plays per game.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Chargers safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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