Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been among the top RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Najee Harris's 7.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 16.2.
Najee Harris's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.9% to 55.5%.

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