Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With an exceptional 8.3% Target% (75th percentile) this year, Najee Harris places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
This year, the daunting Bengals defense has given up a feeble 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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