Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+132/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a less important option in his team's passing attack this season (8.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris's receiving talent has declined this year, totaling a measly 2.6 yards per game compared to 4.1 last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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