Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Najee Harris has been among the leading RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.0 receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Najee Harris's 17.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 22.4.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.