Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+138/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -200 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
Najee Harris has run fewer routes this year (47.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (65.6%).
Najee Harris's receiving talent has declined this year, averaging just 2.5 yards per game compared to 4.2 last year.

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