Najee Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 3.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (83.8%) vs. RBs this year (83.8%).
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year with their pass rush.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been less involved as a potential target this season (48.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (65.6%).
Najee Harris's receiving performance has worsened this season, notching a measly 2.7 yards per game compared to 4.2 last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

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