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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing offenses have played at the 10th-fastest pace in the league (in a neutral context) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season, averaging 27.54 seconds per snap.

When it comes to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the lofty 81st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accumulating a whopping 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more remarkable than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

The Denver Broncos defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (35.0) to RBs since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The Pittsburgh O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Najee Harris checks in as one of the weakest running backs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 6.20 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 19th percentile.

The Broncos pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 7.42 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 9th-fewest in the league.

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