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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Right now, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.

The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.

Najee Harris has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 10.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among running backs.

Najee Harris's 19.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season illustrates a substantial boost in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 11.0 mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Najee Harris has posted a paltry -4.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 7th percentile when it comes to RBs.

This year, the tough Ravens defense has yielded a paltry 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Ravens safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to pass rush.

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