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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Najee Harris has posted a massive 1.0 air yards per game last year: 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Last year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing running backs: a staggering 6.73 yards.

The Falcons pass defense has struggled when opposing running backs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 9.22 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Najee Harris ranks as one of the bottom RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a mere 5.19 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 9th percentile.

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