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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-130).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the league (43.7 per game) this year.

When talking about air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the towering 83rd percentile among running backs this year, accruing a superb 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Najee Harris's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, notching 8.88 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a mere 5.85 rate last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.

Najee Harris's 9.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 16.2.

The Pittsburgh offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Najee Harris's 9.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season marks a substantial regression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 14.0 rate.

Najee Harris's 70.0% Adjusted Catch% this year marks a material diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 77.9% rate.

More Najee Harris Player Props

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