Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are forecasted by the model to call 65.5 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a colossal 5.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (only 54.6 per game on average).
Najee Harris's 9.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 16.2.
The Steelers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Najee Harris has totaled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (7.0) this season than he did last season (14.0).
Najee Harris's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 77.9% to 58.5%.

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