Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
When it comes to air yards, Najee Harris ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among running backs this year, accumulating a massive 7.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
This year, the anemic Ravens defense has been gouged for a colossal 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris's 10.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 16.2.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Najee Harris has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (8.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).