Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Najee Harris's 7.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 16.2.
Najee Harris's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.9% to 55.5%.
Najee Harris's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 0.39 yards-per-target vs a 4.40 figure last season.

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