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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.
  • The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
  • The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • As it relates to air yards, Najee Harris grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among running backs since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 4.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

  • The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
  • Najee Harris's 7.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 16.2.
  • Najee Harris's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.9% to 55.5%.
  • Najee Harris's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, compiling just 0.39 yards-per-target vs a 4.40 figure last season.

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