Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 25, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.9% to 56.2%.
Najee Harris's pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging just 0.45 yards-per-target compared to a 4.40 mark last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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