Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 19, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-115/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 75.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 3.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
Najee Harris has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football among running backs, averaging a mere 4.29 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 15th percentile.
Najee Harris has been among the bottom RBs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 5.91 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 24th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has exhibited good efficiency against RBs since the start of last season, allowing 5.23 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in football.