Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-124/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With an exceptional 8.3% Target% (75th percentile) this year, Najee Harris places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.
Najee Harris has put up a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's 7.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a material improvement in his efficiency in space over last season's 5.9% figure.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
This year, the daunting Bengals defense has given up a feeble 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the league.
This year, the stout Bengals pass defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a feeble 5.6 YAC.

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