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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-124/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

With an exceptional 8.3% Target% (75th percentile) this year, Najee Harris places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

Najee Harris has put up a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile when it comes to running backs. (That might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Najee Harris's 7.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a material improvement in his efficiency in space over last season's 5.9% figure.

The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

This year, the daunting Bengals defense has given up a feeble 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

This year, the stout Bengals pass defense has yielded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing running backs: a feeble 5.6 YAC.

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