Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 2.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 9.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has compiled a colossal 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been among the least effective receivers in football among RBs, averaging a lowly 4.40 yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 15th percentile.
Najee Harris has been among the weakest running backs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 5.85 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 25th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (72.7%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (72.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. RBs since the start of last season, allowing 4.28 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the NFL.