Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 3.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 78.6% to 84.2%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been a less important option in his team's air attack this season (9.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris has put up quite a few less receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating a measly 4.00 yards-per-target vs a 4.94 figure last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.19 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.

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