Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a less important option in his team's passing attack this season (8.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris's receiving efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 4.15 yards-per-target vs a 4.94 mark last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 15.0) versus running backs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.

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