Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a giant 14-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has accumulated a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 55.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 28.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.
Najee Harris has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (47.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (67.6%).

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