Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has totaled a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (44.0) vs. RBs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris's 16.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 21.9.
Najee Harris has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris has been among the least effective pass-catchers in football among RBs, averaging a measly 4.29 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 8th percentile.
Najee Harris has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 6.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 18th percentile.