Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.3% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among RBs.
Najee Harris has totaled a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's skills in generating extra yardage have been refined this season, totaling 6.47 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 5.42 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been used less as a potential target this season (46.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (65.6%).
Najee Harris has posted a lot fewer receiving yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (26.0).
Najee Harris has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL among RBs, averaging just 4.25 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 8th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 30.0) vs. RBs this year.

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