Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 3.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has posted a colossal 4.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, accumulating 6.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.42 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been less involved as a potential target this season (48.0% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (65.6%).
Najee Harris has compiled substantially fewer receiving yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Najee Harris's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging just 3.98 yards-per-target compared to a 4.81 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 31.0) to running backs this year.

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