Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to total 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has accumulated a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Najee Harris's ability to pick up extra yardage has been refined this season, notching 6.68 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 5.57 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack this season (10.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.2%).
Najee Harris has accumulated a lot fewer receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).

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