Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris has totaled a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller part of his team's pass game this year (9.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.2%).
Najee Harris has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Najee Harris's pass-game effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 3.86 yards-per-target vs a 4.94 mark last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (70%) versus RBs this year (70.0%).

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