Najee Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers have been the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.4% pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 3.5 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 78.6% to 86.4%.
Najee Harris's skills in grinding out extra yardage have gotten a boost this season, compiling 7.17 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 5.57 rate last season.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Najee Harris's 15.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 22.4.
Najee Harris has compiled many fewer receiving yards per game (14.0) this season than he did last season (26.0).
Najee Harris's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 3.98 yards-per-target compared to a 4.94 figure last year.

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