Najee Harris Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+800/-2200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.
Najee Harris's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 78.6% to 86.4%.
Najee Harris ranks in the 90th percentile among RBs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.
The New Orleans Saints defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Najee Harris's 15.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 22.4.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (72.5%) versus running backs this year (72.5%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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