Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to run on 47.4% of their downs: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week.
At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.
In this contest, Najee Harris is predicted by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 75th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.5 carries.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.
The Bengals linebackers rank as the 4th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team's running game this week (44.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.5% in games he has played).

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