Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-104/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to garner 11.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (44.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (56.1% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers safeties profile as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

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