Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 14.3 carries in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a heavy 11.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 34.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this year (67.6% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

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