Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 16.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (67.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (78.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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