Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to notch 19.2 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this year (63.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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