Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to earn 16.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among running backs.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this year (59.5% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (78.8%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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