Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 12:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 16.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Najee Harris has been a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this season (65.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (78.8%).
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

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