Najee Harris Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Najee Harris

NFL · Player Props

Najee Harris

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Carries

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Najee Harris Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accumulate 13.0 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team's run game this week (49.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (63.3% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

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