Mo Alie-Cox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Mo Alie-Cox

NFL · Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 7:22 PM EST

Analysis

Mo Alie-Cox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.
The Packers linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.8 per game) last year.
Mo Alie-Cox grades out as one of the bottom pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 8th percentile among tight ends.

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