Mo Alie-Cox Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Mo Alie-Cox

NFL · Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Mo Alie-Cox Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-128/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Mo Alie-Cox's 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 21.0.
Mo Alie-Cox has been among the worst possession receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a measly 57.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 21st percentile.

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