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Mo Alie-Cox

Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts

Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -4-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their usual approach.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts profiles as the 2nd-best in football since the start of last season.

The Packers pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against tight ends last year, yielding 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the league.

Last year, the porous Packers defense has conceded the 3rd-most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a colossal 6.00 YAC.

The Packers linebackers project as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 51.3% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have only 126.5 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially increased (and running stats reduced) due to playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some correction with windier conditions in this game.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Green Bay Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 31.8 per game) last year.

With a subpar 11.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (19th percentile) since the start of last season, Mo Alie-Cox ranks among the weakest TE receiving threats in the NFL.

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