Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Mo Alie-Cox

NFL · Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+135/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Mo Alie-Cox's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% jumping from 57.5% to 74.0%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Mo Alie-Cox has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Mo Alie-Cox's 10.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 21.0.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

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