Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mo Alie-Cox Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+101/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Mo Alie-Cox has posted a colossal 25.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have incorporated play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

The Colts are a 4-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Mo Alie-Cox's 13.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 21.0.