Mo Alie-Cox Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Mo Alie-Cox

NFL · Player Props

Mo Alie-Cox

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Mo Alie-Cox Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+371/-751).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +395 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +371.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Mo Alie-Cox has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 12.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 75th percentile among TEs.
Mo Alie-Cox has totaled a whopping 27.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among TEs.
The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.3%) to TEs since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 6th-most passing touchdowns in the league to TEs: 0.47 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Colts are a big 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in the league.
Mo Alie-Cox has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a measly 57.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 4th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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