Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Mitchell Trubisky

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Mitchell Trubisky TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-278/+205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -278 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +205.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 60.2% red zone pass rate.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (73.0%).
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 6th-worst safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Mitchell Trubisky to attempt 27.0 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a mere 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.